Expert Expects Extension Through March 2028
Temporary protection for people from Ukraine is currently in effect until March 4, 2027. No official decision has yet been made regarding what will happen after that. However, according to Ylva Johansson, another extension is likely.
Johansson is the European Union’s Special Representative for Ukrainians. In an interview with the podcast “Brussels Calls You” on the news portal DW, she explained that the European Commission would propose extending the protection for another year. The protection status could thus remain in effect until March 4, 2028.
Johansson said that discussions are already underway among member states regarding a joint approach. The EU is actively working to find a solution for the period after March 2027. In her view, the EU member states would also agree to the proposal.
There has not yet been an official proposal from the European Commission. Johansson, however, expects one “pretty soon.” A final decision cannot be made until the Commission has presented its proposal and the member states have discussed and voted on it.
Extension of protection—but not for everyone?
Johansson expects that the temporary protection will be extended for another year. At the same time, however, she stated that there might be “a few minor adjustments” to the existing rules.
Under current rules, refugees from Ukraine are automatically granted temporary protection in Germany and all other EU countries. They do not have to go through an asylum procedure and are granted access to the labor market, social benefits, and the health and education systems. In Germany, temporary protection falls under the Residence permit Section 24 of the Residence Act (AufenthG).
Johansson did not specify in the interview what changes she expects to the current rule. However, in early June, it was reported that several EU countries, including Germany, had spoken out in favor of restrictions on the admission of Ukrainian men.
There is discussion about excluding men between the ages of 23 and 60 from temporary protection in the future. The rationale given is that Ukraine needs men of military age to defend the country and to support the labor market.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also hinted that the current rule could be amended in this regard. However, she has not yet provided any specific details.
According to the latest information, the new rule is expected to affect primarily Ukrainians entering the EU for the first time. The protection status of individuals already in the EU, however, is not expected to change.
If newly arriving men between the ages of 23 and 60 were excluded from temporary protection, they would have to file a regular asylum application or apply for another Residence permit . Their eligibility for protection would then be assessed on a case-by-case basis.
Ongoing war as the reason for the extension
Johansson cited the continuing uncertainty in Ukraine as a key reason for the expected extension. He said a peace agreement or a lasting ceasefire was not expected in the near future.
According to the EU Special Representative, the EU must therefore provide clarity at an early stage. Many Ukrainians are concerned about what will happen after the current protection period ends in March 2027. A prompt decision could give those affected greater certainty and make it easier for them to plan for their future.
In March 2026, approximately 4.33 million people in the European Union were under temporary protection. More than 1.1 million of them lived in Germany.
Switching to a Different Residence permit
Despite the expected extension, Johansson advises people from Ukraine Residence permit to a different Residence permit in the long term. In her view, temporary protection should not remain the sole basis for their stay for five or six years.
People who have been living in an EU country for several years should, if possible, gradually Residence permit to a regular Residence permit . In Germany, for example, a residence permit for employment, vocational training, higher education, or family reasons might be an option.
However, a change is only possible if the requirements for the respective Residence permit are met. The specific requirements depend on the intended purpose of the stay.
Conclusion: No official decision has been made yet
Ylva Johansson's statements make it likely that temporary protection will be extended through March 2028. Discussions among EU member states are already underway, and the European Commission appears to be preparing a proposal to that effect.
However, a final decision has not yet been made. It also remains to be seen whether the protection will be extended without changes or whether special rules will be introduced for Ukrainian men entering the country for the first time.
